What you'll learn from this article

  • The "one single golden rule" that separates passing from failing on the Secondary Exam
  • Frequently tested terms and question trends revealed by real data from the past 10 years (2016–2025, all 230 questions)
  • Priority "focus areas" for Case IV and Cases I–III respectively

Who this is written for: Candidates who have finished (or expect to pass) the Primary Exam and have started preparing for the Secondary, but feel lost — "I don't know where to begin" or "How do I study for an exam with no official model answers?"

The Secondary Exam for the SME Management Consultant qualification asks you to read four cases (stories about small and medium-sized businesses) and answer in writing. Unlike the Primary Exam, you can't pass just by memorizing knowledge — and there are no official model answers.

This series draws on an actual data analysis of the past 10 years (2016–2025, 230 questions total) to lay out a strategy guide that uses real numbers to show where focusing your effort will bring you closest to passing. Part 1 covers the essence of the exam and a bird's-eye view of question trends.

The author used this analysis data as the basis for developing and releasing an iPad app called "Jirei Drill" (Case Drill) for Secondary Exam (Cases I–III) prep. This series makes the analysis behind the app's learning design available in a form useful to anyone — even those not using the app (a brief mention of the app appears at the end).

The Essence of the Secondary Exam: One Single Golden Rule

First, let's nail down the golden rule that separates passing from failing.

Every answer must be grounded in evidence from the case text (the given passage).

No matter how logical or beautifully written, an answer that uses information not found in the case text will not be scored. Flip that around: every seed of an answer is already buried somewhere in the case text.

A common misconception here is about the role of frameworks (SWOT, 3C, etc.). Frameworks are tools for organizing the information in the case text — using a framework is not an end in itself. Think of it this way: frameworks exist so you can "pick up every piece of information scattered through the case text and present it to the examiner in a way that lands clearly, without missing anything."

The Four Cases and Scoring Structure

The Secondary Exam consists of the following four cases.

Case Theme Core Tools
Case I Organization & HR SWOT, competitive strategy, growth strategy, organizational structure
Case II Marketing & Distribution 3C, SWOT, STP, 4P
Case III Production & Technology QCD, production management, value chain
Case IV Finance & Accounting Financial analysis, CVP, NPV (calculation-focused)

Each case is worth 100 points, for a total of 400. The passing threshold is 60 points or above on each individual case (plus meeting the overall total requirement). Scoring below 40 on any single case results in automatic disqualification, so the mindset of "score stably at 60 across all cases" matters far more than "rack up points on your strengths."

Now for the Main Event: Data Analysis of the Past 10 Years

From here, I'll share what emerged from analyzing all 230 questions over the past 10 years. Not "this topic seems to come up a lot" — but actual numbers: what was tested, how many times, and in which years.

How Are Questions Distributed?

Looking at the 230 questions broken down by case, Case IV (Finance) stands out with a noticeably higher question count. This is because Case IV is subdivided into many sub-questions (Q1, Q2, Q3…). In finance, "term = calculation procedure" directly translates to points, so technical terms tend to appear explicitly in the question text itself.

Cases I–III, on the other hand, feature technical terms in the question text less often. That's because concepts are tested through the case text itself, while the questions ask indirectly — "state the reasons" or "give your recommendations." This fundamental difference in character directly shapes how you should approach each case.

Case IV (Finance): Question Trends

Let's look at the most important finance terms in order of how frequently they appear directly in question text.

"Guaranteed" Terms That Appear Almost Every Year

Term Years Appeared (out of 10) In a Nutshell
Fixed costs 10 Foundation of CVP analysis and break-even point
Variable costs 10 Directly tied to calculating contribution margin
Depreciation 8 Added back to profit in cash flow calculations
Cash flow 9 Foundation of investment decisions
Tax rate 8 Essential for calculating after-tax CF
Financial indicators 10 Standard fare for Q1 financial analysis

Fixed costs and variable costs appeared in all 10 years. CVP analysis (break-even point) and financial analysis are the immovable bedrock of Case IV.

A Major Recent Trend: Shift Toward Capital Investment Decisions

Splitting the past 10 years into the first half (2016–20) and second half (2021–25) reveals a clear shift.

Term First 5 Years Second 5 Years Change
Investment proposal 0 7 Sharp increase
Capital investment 0 5 Sharp increase
Disposal value 0 5 Sharp increase
Annuity present value factor 1 8 Sharp increase
Compound present value factor 2 8 Sharp increase
Net present value (NPV) 2 6 Increase

Multi-step problems that use the NPV method to evaluate whether to proceed with capital investment have become the top priority in recent years. The fact that "investment proposal," "capital investment," and "disposal value" — all zero in the first five years — appeared across the board in the second five years is a shift you cannot afford to ignore.

In terms of preparation, your top priority right now should be mastering the full sequence: using present value factors vs. annuity present value factors correctly, calculating after-tax cash flow, and handling the tax treatment of disposal value when selling equipment.

Note: Basic items like revenue and profit/loss have actually appeared less often as standalone terms. But this just means they've become implicit prerequisites for calculations — their importance hasn't dropped. Don't skip the fundamentals to jump ahead to advanced topics.

Cases I–III (Non-Finance): Question Trends

Since technical terms rarely appear directly in question text for the non-finance cases, we look at related terms to see which concepts keep being tested.

The Most Important Concepts Across All Cases

Term Years Appeared Cases Appeared In Comment
Customer 10 3 cases The starting point for every case. "Who" receives the value?
Strategy 9 3 cases Consistency of direction
New business 7 3 cases The biggest trend to increase in the second five years
Strengths 9 3 cases The core of SWOT. The starting point for grounding recommendations

"Customer" appeared for 10 consecutive years across 3 cases — it is truly the central concept of the Secondary Exam.

Recent Trend: The Linked Theme of "Strengths × New Business × Organization"

Even outside finance, changes are visible between the first and second five-year periods.

  • New business (5 times in first half → 9 in second) and strengths (4 → 8) both increased in the second half.
  • This reflects a rise in questions that link these themes: "How do you support new business development leveraging your own strengths, from an organizational and human resources perspective?"
  • Weaknesses (2 → 5) and terms related to building systems and structures (1 → 4) are also trending upward. The pattern of using SWOT and 3C to analyze the current situation and then making evidence-based recommendations is growing stronger.

Case II, Q1: The Classic "SWOT or 3C?" Slot

Question 1 of Case II is a reliable fixture where SWOT analysis and 3C analysis alternate almost every year.

  • SWOT: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024
  • 3C: 2018, 2022, 2023, 2025

The golden rule is to have both formats polished so you can handle whichever comes up (the specifics of how to use them are covered in Part 2).

Where to Focus: What the Data Tells Us

Pulling together everything above, here is the priority order for your preparation.

Case IV (Finance)

  1. Solidify financial analysis (the Q1 staple) and CVP analysis as your foundation
  2. Drill capital investment decisions (NPV, CF, disposal value, present value factors) as your top priority ← recent trend
  3. Build volume through repeated practice with problem sets (Part 3 goes into detail)

Cases I–III (Non-Finance)

  1. Train yourself to pull evidence from the case text, centering on "customer" and "strengths"
  2. Get comfortable with the question pattern of "new business leveraging strengths × organizational response" ← recent trend
  3. Prepare both SWOT and 3C for Case II so you're ready for either

Keep Reading: How to Navigate This Series

This article has given you a map of "where to focus your energy." Next up: the weapons (frameworks) and how to practice.

  • Part 2: Framework Techniques by Case — How to actually use SWOT, 3C, STP, 4P, and QCD as "sorting tools" for the case text. Also introduces the structure of a fill-in sheet for sorting case text information.
  • Part 3: Generative AI × Fuzoroi's 5-Step Study Method — A concrete 14-week study routine including a "3-way comparison" between yourself, AI, and Fuzoroi no Goukakusha (a popular crowd-sourced answer guide), plus a "2-stage answer method" for trimming word count.

The App Born from This Analysis: "Jirei Drill"

The question trend analysis, glossary, and framework materials in this series were created by analyzing 10 years of question data with Claude. The app the author developed — "SME Management Consultant Secondary Exam Jirei Drill" (iPad only, one-time purchase, works offline) — takes that analysis and study method and puts it directly into practice on an iPad.

  • Includes the full case texts and questions from the past 10 years (2016–2025) (Cases I–III / Source: Japan SME Diagnostic Association Federation)
  • Practice "sorting" with the case text and a framework fill-in sheet displayed side by side on two screens
  • Includes AI-generated sample answers for all questions (framework sorting examples + written response examples)
  • ※ Case IV (Finance) is not included, as it is calculation-focused and requires a different study approach. For Case IV, repeated practice with a commercially available calculation problem book is recommended (reasons explained in Part 3)

▶ View "Jirei Drill" on the App Store

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